HTML5

The Future of HTML5

Clay Christensen, Harvard Business School professor, introduced a series of theories around what he calls “disruptive innovation” in his book The Innovator’s Dilemma (1997). One of the less well known aspects of the theory orbits around when a company or service should and build a completely integrated “vertical channel” and when a company or service should assemble their good or service out of modular parts.

In the 1990s, the individual computer was usually assembled out of modular components. Companies like Gateway Computers and Dell thrived because they could take modular components built by vendors to particular specifications and assemble them into computers running a modular operating system (Windows) for their customers. Today, in contrast, the hottest computers, tablet devices like the iPad, are not built this way. Instead, Apple (and now Microsoft with their Surface tablet) designs every component in the device, including the operating system. Why the change? According to Christensen’s theory, it’s quite simple: a company should integrate when a modular approach doesn’t produce a product good enough for the customer. In the 1990s, the modular components of a desktop computers were more than good enough for most customers. However, devices like tablets have extremely difficult problems to solve (problems like maintaining good batter life, being sturdy, etc.) and require an integrated approach. Christensen makes the point that industries often move in and out of modular vs integrated over time depending on new market challenges.

I believe that we can look at the history of the Web and see this same cycle occurring. HTML is both modular and integrated. It’s integrated into the browsers and operating systems like Windows, OSX and iOS have dedicated resources to support them. However, the language itself is modular. In the beginning, the modular components of the web were more than good enough. An academic paper didn’t need to have flashy graphics or animation. However, as the web went mainstream, proprietary integrated solutions like Shockwave, Flash and Silverlight were required to meet new demands and needs of customers. Because the W3C was primarily interested in maintaining intellectual purity in the specifications for their modular architecture, they fell behind. It wasn’t until industry leaders left the W3C and rapidly developed HTML5 that the pendulum swung the other way.

Ironically, these proprietary solutions were not integrated well with the browsers and hardware. So, they required more memory and processing power. This was fine when most people browsed the web on desktop computers. However, it was not good enough on mobile devices. So, we now need a technology that is integrated with the browser and software to work well on mobile devices.

However, there is one outstanding question. It’s abundantly clear that mobile is the future of computing technology for mainstream users. However, is HTML5 good enough for them or will they turn to even more integrated technologies like Apps to solve the problems they once looked to the web for?